October 8, 2008

Global Rate Cuts... Finally!
Bottom Line

In the face of intensifying financial market turmoil, major global central banks swooped in this morning with an unprecedented coordinated interest rate cut. The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, ECB, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Sweden’s Riksbank all cut benchmark overnight rates by 50 bps. China also cut interest rates 27 bps and lowered reserve requirements 50 bps, while Japan strongly supported the actions but did not cut rates. Australia had already slashed rates 100 bps earlier this week. The global move was taken in an effort to boost confidence as fear has been proliferating in markets around the world. Market participants had been calling for and expecting this action for some time. The initial reaction has been positive, with European stock markets retracing a good portion of today’s earlier losses and U.S. and Canadian equity markets opening higher.

Is it up from here? From an economic perspective, no. The growth outlook for every major economy has weakened significantly well into 2009 and the longer credit markets remain frozen, the deeper the downturn will be. Bank bailout packages in the U.S., U.K., and Spain should help as well, but they will take time to work. Britain will directly inject capital into troubled banks. This is likely to be more effective than the U.S. plan, under TARP, to buy troubled assets. It is our view that the U.S. will and should recapitalize qualifying banks through direct government investment, and the sooner the better. The FDIC should also expedite its process of dealing with probable bank failures, encouraging takeovers before government assistance is required. Once the weakest banks are dealt with and recapitalization is underway, central banks might also consider a temporary backstop guarantee of all interbank activity to re-establish confidence and thaw the freeze in interbank lending. The Fed commercial paper funding facility, introduced yesterday, is an important step in meeting the short-term funding needs of business. Household debt, however, has plummeted as credit card debt and non-revolving loans, such as auto loans, personal loans and student loans fell by $7.9 billion in August, the most since statistics began in 1943, Fed data showed yesterday. Bernanke also said yesterday that even creditworthy households are finding it difficult obtaining mortgages and home-equity lines of credit. Lack of trust and fear has caused lenders and borrowers to pull back, slowing spending in all sectors.

Financial systems around the world need time to regain confidence, and it will likely be a slow healing process. From an equity market perspective, the rate cuts and clear indications that policymakers stand ready to do more are supportive. However, with the economic backdrop still weak and downside earnings surprises likely to spread to nonfinancial companies, a sustained push higher would be difficult. The story is similar for commodity prices, which might have further to fall as demand slows along with global growth.

This is not the end of rate cuts; more likely will be forthcoming, but whether that will be a soon as the next policy meetings is uncertain. Both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve have policy statements scheduled later this month (Oct. 21 and Oct. 28-29). Additional rate cuts at that time cannot be ruled out, especially in the U.S., depending on incoming economic data and global money and capital market conditions.

The Bottom Line: While the rate cuts are welcome, the global economy is still likely to slow further over the coming quarters. We expect central banks to continue to ease credit conditions through rate cuts and direct liquidity provision. Additional actions on the fiscal front in the U.S. are needed as well to reverse the credit squeeze on state and local governments and to directly help households, particularly homeowners whose mortgage payments are in arrears, as well as those with significant negative equity. Government will also need to take actions to appropriately redevelop vacant properties in some hard-hit areas, mindful of the failures to do so when the Resolution Trust Corporation sold the vacant properties of failed savings and loans in the late 1980s. Many of today’s hardest hit cities back then were left with blighted areas for many years and don’t want to see that happen again.

These are just the short-term emergency measures needed to calm the crisis and renew the flow of credit. Once this is done and a new President is in place, the Congress must deal with a long list of structural measures to prevent such a crisis from ever happening again. Inevitably, with all of these bailouts, U.S. taxpayers will be on the hook for a sizable portion of the liabilities of the financial services industry. Congress will need to institute comprehensive reform of the U.S. financial regulatory structure, as well as review the desirability of governmental housing subsidization. These are deeply political issues relating to mortgage interest tax deductibility, housing-related government entities such as Fannie and Freddie, community reinvestment and subprime lending practices, the regulation of investment banks, hedge funds, credit-rating agencies, insurance companies, money market and other mutual funds, credit derivatives and other opaque credit and investment products, and short selling—and this is just a partial list.



June 19, 2010
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June 18, 2010
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June 10, 2010
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May 14, 2010
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April 23, 2010
U.S. Pessimism is Overblown
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April 16, 2010
Productivity Gap Misleading
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March 26, 2010
Health Care Reform Needed in Canada
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March 24, 2010
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March 23, 2010
Canada's Disturbing Productivity Performance
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March 12, 2010
The U.S. Foreclosure Crisis
Without doubt, the U.S. economy is showing signs of significant recovery in many sectors and regions MORE

March 2, 2010
Canadian Calm in a Turbulent Sea
Canada’s domestic economy has rebounded strongly from the financial crisis and global recession MORE

January 26, 2010
Don't Rock the Boat
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January 22, 2010
U.S. Labour's Lost Dynamism
For a generation that was known for its job-hopping and entrepreneurial spirit, boomer kids—now in their twenties and thirties—are suffering from significant career malaise MORE

January 8, 2010
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December 9, 2009
The Tax-Free Savings Account Is a Real Winner
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December 8, 2009
The Clouds Really Are Parting
The much-better-than-expected November employment numbers for Canada and the United States confirmed that the recession has ended and the recovery is underway MORE

December 4, 2009
China Scolds Western Leaders
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November 13, 2009
Let's Cut a Deal
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October 22, 2009
Sherry Cooper Takes Questions from the Globe and Mail
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October 15, 2009
The U.S. Dollar’s Decline Is Not Such a Bad Thing
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October 2, 2009
Remaking the Retirement Plan, Post-Crisis
Well before the financial crisis and recession, the traditional concept of retirement was outmoded MORE

September 18, 2009
U.S. Job Woes: Canada 1990s Redux
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September 11, 2009
Pain Not Over Yet
By now, it is pretty obvious that the financial crisis is behind us and the global economy is experiencing a synchronized recovery MORE

September 9, 2009
Unbelievable
An article in today’s Wall Street Journal highlighted the possibility of the Chinese Investment Corporation (CIC)—the sovereign wealth fund responsible for investing roughly $300 billion (and growing) of China’s foreign exchange reserves—investing in U.S. commercial real estate which is already down roughly 35% from its peak MORE

September 4, 2009
Who's Doing All of the Saving?
Are households rebuilding their savings in the wake of the economic and financial collapse or is the rise in savings, measured as a residual in the national income accounts, merely a statistical illusion? MORE

August 28, 2009
Upward Revision in Q3 U.S. Growth
We are revising upward our forecast for third quarter growth in the U.S. by a full percentage point, from an estimated 2.8% to 3.8% MORE

August 21, 2009
An Irresistible Opportunity for Successful U.S. Fiscal Stimulus
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August 17, 2009
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August 12, 2009
As Expected, No Fed Policy Change
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July 24, 2009
Pain Not Over Yet
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July 17, 2009
The Painful Process of Deleveraging
The U.S. credit bubble in the 1990s through 2007 enabled a tremendous amount of consumer and business over-spending MORE

July 10, 2009
Let's Get Real
Many fear that mounting deficits and debt will trigger inflation in the future and call for a Fed exit strategy; others are now clamouring for additional fiscal stimulus MORE

July 2, 2009
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June 8, 2009
Post-Crisis Withdrawal
As financial markets heal, banks are shying away from government assistance, betting that they can rely fully on the markets to build capital positions MORE

June 5, 2009
Worst Is Behind Us
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May 28, 2009
Bet You Things Are Better Than You Think
There is increasing reason to believe that the worst of the financial crisis is behind us and the U.S. and global economies are bottoming MORE

May 15, 2009
Running the Printing Presses to Fund the Deficit
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May 3, 2009
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April 29, 2009
Fed Still Adding Juice
Although the Fed announced no new initiatives today, clearly the tone of the press release suggests that the Fed will continue to support previously announced credit easing and expects to do so “for an extended period” MORE

April 27, 2009
Swine Flu: Let's Not Get Carried Away
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April 24, 2009
Investing Is No Longer Child's Play
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March 25, 2009
Future of Finance Conference
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March 18, 2009
More Good News
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March 13, 2009
Finally, Some Good News
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March 11, 2009
More Signs of Hope Needed
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February 27, 2009
A More Prudent Society
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February 5, 2009
The Demonization of Banks
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January 30, 2009
Can You Count on Dividends?
In the U.S., the answer is certainly no. MORE

January 28, 2009
Fed Does Not Dispel Confusion
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January 27, 2009
The Advil Budget
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January 23, 2009
Deflationary Forces Accelerate
Layoffs and reductions in hours worked have been accelerating in recent months and cover firms in virtually every sector of the U.S. economy. MORE

January 9, 2009
Recession Worsens
The latest jobs data signal that the year-long U.S. recession is worsening and the Canadian recession is moving in with full force MORE

December 18, 2008
One Major Lesson
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December 16, 2008
Fed Slashes Rate to 0-to-25 bps Range; Historic Use of Fed Balance Sheet to Ease
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December 5, 2008
Forget Old-Time Fiscal Stimulus
With today's dismal employment report, there is no doubt that the Canadian economy is in recession and the U.S. contraction is accelerating MORE

December 3, 2008
Tough Times, Aggressive Actions
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November 21, 2008
Urgent Action Needed
Canadians have been far too sanguine thinking that we would be cushioned from the crisis in credit and the global recession MORE

November 15, 2008
GM Bailout - Part 2
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November 14, 2008
Should the U.S. Government Bail Out GM?
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November 6, 2008
Recession Darkens
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November 5, 2008
National Catharsis
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October 16, 2008
The Consumer Recession
The sizable decline in stocks in the past two days reflects the growing awareness that the U.S. economy is going into a deeper and more protracted recession than expected MORE

October 10, 2008
Paulson and the G-7 Do the Right Thing
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October 10, 2008
More Action-Crisis Intensifies
All overnight indicators suggest that the crisis is intensifying despite ballooning rescue efforts by governments all over the world MORE

October 9, 2008
The Wealthy Boomer interviews Sherry Cooper
Jonathan Chevreau of the National Post interviews Sherry Cooper on her book, The New Retirement. MORE

October 8, 2008
Global Rate Cuts... Finally!
In the face of intensifying financial market turmoil, major global central banks swooped in this morning with an unprecedented coordinated interest rate cut. MORE

October 7, 2008
Unbelievable Complexity
The Fed and Treasury will do whatever it takes to unfreeze credit markets. MORE

October 1, 2008
Quarterly Web Cast and Dividend Stock Screen
Sherry's latest web cast, and the latest update of the dividend stock screen featured in Sherry Cooper's book, The New Retirement MORE

September 26, 2008
Economists Weigh In
There is nothing I could write at this moment that might not be superseded by events in the next few hours. MORE

September 19, 2008
Stock Market Applauds U.S. Government Plan
What a week this has been. MORE

September 16, 2008
No Rate Change, Easing Bias
In a unanimous decision, policymakers did not cut the benchmark fed funds rate, despite the market’s call for an easing move. MORE

September 15, 2008
Fed Widens Collateral
Judging from my press calls early this morning, there appears to be a good deal of opacity in what the Fed has said regarding a broadening of the collateral it is willing to hold on short-term emergency loans to primary dealers. MORE

September 14, 2008
Wild Day Tomorrow
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September 11, 2008
Recovery Still a Year Away
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August 29, 2008
The New Cold War
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August 22, 2008
Hedge Funds Face Shock Waves
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August 7, 2008
Fed Policy Tighter than Normal at 2% Fed Funds
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August 1, 2008
Obama Just Found His Middle-America Appeal
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July 18, 2008
A Global Presidential Campaign
What better evidence is there that globalization is real and permanent than the foreign trips of both presidential candidates? MORE

July 15, 2008
Crisis Widens
The U.S. financial markets and the U.S. economy are in crisis and the ramifications for the rest of the world are enormous MORE

July 7, 2008
Next Shock: Currency Crisis?
The malaise of the U.S. economy is palpable MORE


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BMO Nesbitt Burns Economics