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January 9, 2009 Recession Worsens Bottom Line |
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The latest jobs data signal that the year-long U.S. recession is worsening
and the Canadian recession is moving in with full force. Canadian
residential and commercial construction activity is slowing rapidly, a sure
sign that the financial woes have moved from Bay Street to Main
Street. While Canada’s housing market will not deteriorate anywhere
near as much as the collapse in the U.S., house prices are now declining in
Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary and Toronto. Multi-family unit construction has
slowed dramatically as projects have stalled in several major cities and the
once-booming high-end condo market in Toronto is staggering under the weight of
excess supply and falling consumer confidence. While housing credit
remains available in Canada, especially in comparison to the U.S., demand for
credit is falling as consumers hoard cash in low-risk deposits and savings
rates rise.
Car sales are now dropping sharply in Canada after having held up much
better than in the U.S. and other G-7 economies until late last year.
The Christmas selling season in the U.S. was arguably the worst in 40
years. While it was disappointing in Canada as well, the slowdown was not
nearly as dramatic. Nonetheless, the fallout in Canadian retail-store
closings and job cuts will be forthcoming. In the U.S., December chain-store
sales were dismal and earnings warnings are mounting. Macy’s, for
example, announced it will close 11 stores in the U.S., another blow to
shopping centres where Macy’s is an anchor store. Shopping centre vacancy
rates in the U.S. are rising sharply and many businesses are successfully
pressuring landlords for rent concessions. A similar pattern is evident in
office and warehouse vacancies and rental rate cuts, while the decline in the
factory sector has put downward pressure on industrial real estate as well.
Early signs of the spring selling season caution continued weakness as many
retailers are opening the season with price cuts as winter inventories remain
above desired levels despite very deep discounts. Consumers, increasingly,
are expecting and demanding discounts for almost all purchases and are willing
to postpone spending with the expectation that prices will fall. This
deflationary psychology contributes to the negative feedback loop that
governments are so desperately trying to break with aggressive monetary easing
and coming fiscal stimulus.
The new Obama Administration has been very quick to market their roughly
US$750 billion two-year stimulus package in the hopes of speedy implementation
after the January 20 Inauguration. Even so, it appears that the squabbling
on Capitol Hill will stall early passage, at least for a while. In the
meantime, the January 27 Canadian budget is being hotly debated with calls for
substantial spending and tax initiatives to boost the economy. Inevitably,
Canada will run its first budget deficit in more than a decade, but compared to
the estimated US$1.2 trillion U.S. deficit for FY2009, the Canadian deficit
will be relatively small.
The proposed U.S. deficit will grow even more if President-elect
Obama’s sweeping stimulus package is enacted. That could add nearly
another US$1 trillion or more to the red ink over two years. This
year’s U.S. deficit is projected to equal 8.3% of gross domestic product.
This compares to:
- 1983: 6% of GDP under President Ronald Reagan
- 1945: 22% of GDP during World War II
- 1944: 23%
- 1943: 30%
Certainly, the cost to the U.S. of funding this higher debt over the longer
run could well rise sharply with diminished foreign reserve accumulation in
countries such as China and the Middle East. But, longer-term
considerations are on the far backburner these days as emergency policy actions
by the Fed, the Treasury and Capitol Hill will continue to help mitigate the
current crisis.
The worsening global recession has raised the spectre of deflation, mounting
unemployment, growing commercial and residential real estate losses and
increasing bankruptcies. Consumer and business spending is decelerating
sharply and the federal government will likely be the only source of growth in
2009. While the situation is more dire in the U.S. and Europe than in Canada,
the difference is in degree not direction.
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June 19, 2010 China Loosens Currency Peg In a surprise announcement on Saturday, the People’s Bank of China
(PBOC) announced it would break the 23-month fixed peg in the yuan MOREJune 18, 2010 Fed Easing Coming? The U.S. economy is losing momentum and price pressures continue to fall MOREJune 10, 2010 Err on the Side of Ease The move toward worldwide fiscal restraint runs the risk of weakening the economic recovery MOREMay 14, 2010 Global Credit Crisis Morphs Into a Global Debt Crisis With the onslaught of the credit crisis in the fall of 2008, every country in the G20 agreed to stimulate their economies by boosting government spending and/or cutting taxes MOREApril 23, 2010 U.S. Pessimism is Overblown There is just too much pessimism in and regarding the U.S. these days MOREApril 16, 2010 Productivity Gap Misleading The record productivity gap between Canada and the U.S. has generated much handwringing MOREMarch 26, 2010 Health Care Reform Needed in Canada Ironically, while the U.S. is going through the excruciating process of developing a more broadly available health care system, Ontario is working to reduce government provisions to hospitals in an effort to balance the budget MOREMarch 24, 2010 Fed Decision Making—Why New Appointments to the Fed Don’t Really Matter According to media reports, President Obama is poised to name economist Janet Yellen to be Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board MOREMarch 23, 2010 Canada's Disturbing Productivity Performance The Canadian economy has clearly pulled out of recession with 5% growth in the fourth quarter and good momentum heading into this year MOREMarch 12, 2010 The U.S. Foreclosure Crisis Without doubt, the U.S. economy is showing signs of significant recovery in many sectors and regions MOREMarch 2, 2010 Canadian Calm in a Turbulent Sea Canada’s domestic economy has rebounded strongly from the financial crisis and global recession MOREJanuary 26, 2010 Don't Rock the Boat Now more than ever, the biggest risk to sustained recovery is the political response to the fallout of the financial crisis and its impact on consumer and business sentiment MOREJanuary 22, 2010 U.S. Labour's Lost Dynamism For a generation that was known for its job-hopping and entrepreneurial spirit, boomer kids—now in their twenties and thirties—are suffering from significant career malaise MOREJanuary 8, 2010 The End of the Bull Market in Bonds? Even the most bullish bond fund managers will admit that, in time, U.S. government bond yields will head higher MOREDecember 9, 2009 The Tax-Free Savings Account Is a Real Winner In a surprise addition to the 2008 federal budget, the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) was born MOREDecember 8, 2009 The Clouds Really Are Parting The much-better-than-expected November employment numbers for Canada and the United States confirmed that the recession has ended and the recovery is underway MOREDecember 4, 2009 China Scolds Western Leaders China has been flexing its muscles a lot lately MORENovember 13, 2009 Let's Cut a Deal The falling U.S. dollar is grabbing enough attention these days that the Chinese authorities are signalling they will consider allowing their currency to edge upward once again MOREOctober 22, 2009 Sherry Cooper Takes Questions from the Globe and Mail Dr. Cooper joined a forum at the Globe and Mail’s web site to take your questions about small business and the recession. MOREOctober 15, 2009 The U.S. Dollar’s Decline Is Not Such a Bad Thing Many have suggested that the fall in the U.S. dollar is reflective of the sad state of American economic affairs replete with surging budget deficits, profligate consumer spending, overleveraged banks, enormous current account deficits and an increasing reliance on foreign capital inflows to finance the overspending MOREOctober 2, 2009 Remaking the Retirement Plan, Post-Crisis Well before the financial crisis and recession, the traditional concept of retirement was outmoded MORESeptember 18, 2009 U.S. Job Woes: Canada 1990s Redux There is a new kind of unemployment in the U.S.—long duration structural unemployment MORESeptember 11, 2009 Pain Not Over Yet By now, it is pretty obvious that the financial crisis is behind us and the global economy is experiencing a synchronized recovery MORESeptember 9, 2009 Unbelievable An article in today’s Wall Street Journal highlighted the possibility of the Chinese Investment Corporation (CIC)—the sovereign wealth fund responsible for investing roughly $300 billion (and growing) of China’s foreign exchange reserves—investing in U.S. commercial real estate which is already down roughly 35% from its peak MORESeptember 4, 2009 Who's Doing All of the Saving? Are households rebuilding their savings in the wake of the economic and financial collapse or is the rise in savings, measured as a residual in the national income accounts, merely a statistical illusion? MOREAugust 28, 2009 Upward Revision in Q3 U.S. Growth We are revising upward our forecast for third quarter growth in the U.S. by
a full percentage point, from an estimated 2.8% to 3.8% MOREAugust 21, 2009 An Irresistible Opportunity for Successful U.S. Fiscal Stimulus While everyone knows that the American consumer has been the weak link in
this recovery, in one sector the fiscal stimulus has opened consumer wallets MOREAugust 17, 2009 Strengthening Canadian-Chinese Ties In the wake of the global recession and the plunge in the Canadian trade balance to a deficit position, Canada is working hard to strengthen business ties with Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the so-called BRIC countries MOREAugust 12, 2009 As Expected, No Fed Policy Change The Fed is more optimistic about the economic outlook than it was in late June MOREJuly 24, 2009 Pain Not Over Yet Since 2007, with the beginning of the U.S. housing meltdown and the ensuing financial crisis, there has been a global decline in private sector spending, a dramatic shrinkage in global trade and an unprecedented spike in government spending MOREJuly 17, 2009 The Painful Process of Deleveraging The U.S. credit bubble in the 1990s through 2007 enabled a tremendous amount of consumer and business over-spending MOREJuly 10, 2009 Let's Get Real Many fear that mounting deficits and debt will trigger inflation in the
future and call for a Fed exit strategy; others are now clamouring for
additional fiscal stimulus MOREJuly 2, 2009 Employment and the Fed Those who have been calling for a Fed exit strategy from the extraordinary degree of monetary ease should be silenced by the June employment results MOREJune 8, 2009 Post-Crisis Withdrawal As financial markets heal, banks are shying away from government assistance, betting that they can rely fully on the markets to build capital positions MOREJune 5, 2009 Worst Is Behind Us Signs of improvement in the U.S. housing market, rising consumer confidence and a rally in financial stocks in the U.S. and Canada suggest that the economies are bottoming and the worst of the financial crisis is behind us MOREMay 28, 2009 Bet You Things Are Better Than You Think There is increasing reason to believe that the worst of the financial crisis is behind us and the U.S. and global economies are bottoming MOREMay 15, 2009 Running the Printing Presses to Fund the Deficit Many are concerned that, despite today’s very weak April CPI reading of ‑0.7% year-over-year, the huge monetary and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. will ultimately debase the currency MOREMay 3, 2009 Swine flu threatens to kick economies when they are down In the midst of the longest and perhaps deepest global recession in the postwar period, the last thing we need is rising protectionism, travel advisories and reduced business and consumer activity MOREApril 29, 2009 Fed Still Adding Juice Although the Fed announced no new initiatives today, clearly the tone of the
press release suggests that the Fed will continue to support previously
announced credit easing and expects to do so “for an extended
period” MOREApril 27, 2009 Swine Flu: Let's Not Get Carried Away My phone has been ringing off the hook this morning with media requests to discuss the economic implications of a swine flu pandemic MOREApril 24, 2009 Investing Is No Longer Child's Play The Bank of Canada made it clear this week that our economy is contracting far more than they earlier expected MOREMarch 25, 2009 Future of Finance Conference The Who’s Who of finance descended upon Washington, D.C. Monday
for 24 hours of policy analysis MOREMarch 18, 2009 More Good News Bernanke is the man, clearly the best spokesperson for the Obama
administration, raising his odds of reappointment this summer MOREMarch 13, 2009 Finally, Some Good News No doubt about it, the Canadian employment nosedive in February is bad news, but it is bad news that is in lagged response to what has already been happening around the world MOREMarch 11, 2009 More Signs of Hope Needed We are in a negative-news cycle, to say the least, and it is difficult to see a near-term end to it based on incoming data, heated policy debates and wealth-obliterating market activity MOREFebruary 27, 2009 A More Prudent Society It has now been publicized around the world just how strong our banking system is in Canada MOREFebruary 5, 2009 The Demonization of Banks The global financial landscape is changing rapidly and perhaps nowhere more
so than in the U.S. MOREJanuary 30, 2009 Can You Count on Dividends? In the U.S., the answer is certainly no. MOREJanuary 28, 2009 Fed Does Not Dispel Confusion The Federal Reserve just wrapped up its first policy meeting of the New Year MOREJanuary 27, 2009 The Advil Budget The 2009 Canadian budget is chock-full of government spending and
rather light on the side of tax cuts, but the truth is that domestic
fiscal stimulus can only ease the pain of the global recession and credit
crisis MOREJanuary 23, 2009 Deflationary Forces Accelerate Layoffs and reductions in hours worked have been accelerating in recent months and cover firms in virtually every sector of the U.S. economy. MOREJanuary 9, 2009 Recession Worsens The latest jobs data signal that the year-long U.S.
recession is worsening and the Canadian recession is moving in with full
force MOREDecember 18, 2008 One Major Lesson One major lesson learned in 2008 is that financial losses spill quickly into
the real economy MOREDecember 16, 2008 Fed Slashes Rate to 0-to-25 bps Range; Historic Use of Fed Balance Sheet to Ease The Federal Reserve has every reason to ease aggressively and it certainly did MOREDecember 5, 2008 Forget Old-Time Fiscal Stimulus With today's dismal employment report, there is no doubt that the Canadian economy is in recession and the U.S. contraction is accelerating MOREDecember 3, 2008 Tough Times, Aggressive Actions There is growing evidence that the global economic slump is deepening and that consumer and business access to credit is shrinking. MORENovember 21, 2008 Urgent Action Needed Canadians have been far too sanguine thinking that we would be cushioned
from the crisis in credit and the global recession MORENovember 15, 2008 GM Bailout - Part 2 Yesterday, in a note to clients, I acknowledged that there are two sides to
the GM-bailout controversy MORENovember 14, 2008 Should the U.S. Government Bail Out GM? Washington is currently struggling with the issue of whether or not to bail
out the domestic auto industry, most immediately, GM. MORENovember 6, 2008 Recession Darkens With the U.S. election behind us, markets are focussed on the serious
negative impact the financial crisis had on the economy since late September MORENovember 5, 2008 National Catharsis President-elect Barack Obama has won a decisive victory, drawing support
from all regions of the country and all segments of the population MOREOctober 16, 2008 The Consumer Recession The sizable decline in stocks in the past two days reflects the growing
awareness that the U.S. economy is going into a deeper and more protracted
recession than expected MOREOctober 10, 2008 Paulson and the G-7 Do the Right Thing U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson just announced that the TARP would be
buying not only troubled bank assets, but will also infuse capital into banks
and other financial firms directly MOREOctober 10, 2008 More Action-Crisis Intensifies All overnight indicators suggest that the crisis is intensifying despite ballooning rescue efforts by governments all over the world MOREOctober 9, 2008 The Wealthy Boomer interviews Sherry Cooper Jonathan Chevreau of the National Post interviews Sherry Cooper on her book, The New Retirement. MOREOctober 8, 2008 Global Rate Cuts... Finally! In the face of intensifying financial market turmoil, major global central banks swooped in this morning with an unprecedented coordinated interest rate cut. MOREOctober 7, 2008 Unbelievable Complexity The Fed and Treasury will do whatever it takes to unfreeze credit markets. MOREOctober 1, 2008 Quarterly Web Cast and Dividend Stock Screen Sherry's latest web cast, and the latest update of the dividend stock screen featured in Sherry Cooper's book, The New Retirement MORESeptember 26, 2008 Economists Weigh In There is nothing I could write at this moment that might not be superseded by events in the next few hours. MORESeptember 19, 2008 Stock Market Applauds U.S. Government Plan What a week this has been. MORESeptember 16, 2008 No Rate Change, Easing Bias In a unanimous decision, policymakers did not cut the benchmark fed funds rate, despite the market’s call for an easing move. MORESeptember 15, 2008 Fed Widens Collateral Judging from my press calls early this morning, there appears to be a good deal of opacity in what the Fed has said regarding a broadening of the collateral it is willing to hold on short-term emergency loans to primary dealers. MORESeptember 14, 2008 Wild Day Tomorrow Unfortunately, as of 4:00 p.m. today (Sunday) the news on an orderly takeover of Lehman Brothers does not look good. MORESeptember 11, 2008 Recovery Still a Year Away With continued financial instability and the deceleration in global growth, Canada's economy has slowed and the TSX has fallen sharply on the heels of commodity price declines. MOREAugust 29, 2008 The New Cold War Russia began the latest flexing of its political and economic muscles as China, with the Beijing Olympics, was about to begin its triumphant coming out party. MOREAugust 22, 2008 Hedge Funds Face Shock Waves Things are tough and getting tougher in the hedge fund (HF) business. MOREAugust 7, 2008 Fed Policy Tighter than Normal at 2% Fed Funds While the Fed decided to leave its benchmark interest rate at 2% this week, well below the level suggested by the Taylor Rule, credit conditions in the U.S. are much tighter than this rate would suggest. MOREAugust 1, 2008 Obama Just Found His Middle-America Appeal With Obama still running behind McCain in the industrial heartland, among both male and female voters in states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, news widely reported today that Wal-Mart has formally and officially informed managers that a vote for the Democrats is a vote for unionization will not sit well with America’s traditional middle class MOREJuly 18, 2008 A Global Presidential Campaign What better evidence is there that globalization is real and permanent than the foreign trips of both presidential candidates? MOREJuly 15, 2008 Crisis Widens The U.S. financial markets and the U.S. economy are in crisis and the ramifications for the rest of the world are enormous MOREJuly 7, 2008 Next Shock: Currency Crisis? The malaise of the U.S. economy is palpable MORE
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