January 27, 2009

The Advil Budget
Bottom Line

The 2009 Canadian budget is chock-full of government spending and rather light on the side of tax cuts, but the truth is that domestic fiscal stimulus can only ease the pain of the global recession and credit crisis. The root cause of the pain emanates from the U.S. and has spilled into a global meltdown with far more damage in the rest of the G-7 than here at home. Until the U.S. economy begins to turn around and credit spreads fall to more normal levels, Canada will experience sub-par growth and business and job losses. It’s the take-two-aspirin-and-call-me-in-the-morning budget. This budget is palliative by necessity, but that is better than nothing.

Arguably, the budget will enhance domestic financial stability, which is the most we can hope for right now. Ottawa has granted the Bank of Canada, Canadian Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC), and the Minister of Finance broadened authorities to respond to a banking crisis of the sort plaguing the U.S. and Europe. Hopefully, these authorities will not be tapped because Canadian banks are relatively strong. But setting up the mechanism for bank bailouts is prudent and in compliance with the G-20 Finance Ministers Agreement. Ottawa has given the CDIC the authority to inject capital into any troubled federally insured financial institution, subject to the approval of the Minister of Finance; the CDIC can also establish a “bridge” institution, similar to the “aggregator” bank proposal suggested for the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), to “help maintain financial stability.” While the budget is not explicit, the presumed function of the bridge institution would be to buy toxic illiquid assets off the books of the banks if they were to become a hindrance to raising private capital. Interestingly, the CDIC deposit insurance limit was not increased. It remains at $100,000 per account; the limit was raised to $250,000 in the U.S. months ago.

As well, the government is providing liquidity through increased purchases of asset-backed securities, guarantees and other back-stops such as increased lending by EDC and BDC to encourage bank lending to consumers, small businesses and large commercial enterprises. Home loans and auto loans, as well as lending to small businesses, are particularly encouraged. However, the banks were not authorized to issue auto leases; there will be future consultations on the issue. With the demise of the Detroit Three’s acceptance corporations and auto-leasing capabilities, the inability to get a lease could dampen sales in the troubled industry. Banks could well satisfy this demand.

The Canadian banks are the strongest in the world with the highest tier-one capital ratios and the least exposure to the illiquid CDOs and credit default swaps that ravaged so many U.S and European banks. Canadian banks are able to raise capital in the private financial markets, albeit at a high cost. All of the Canadian banks have issued equity, preferred shares and/or capital trust notes in recent months to augment their already-high capital ratios. However, the cost of capital for these banks is very high, especially in relation to the bank lending rates. In the U.S., virtually all of the banks have no access to private markets and depend on the Fed or the TARP for capital injections. Loan growth in Canada remains positive, unlike in the U.S., but given the inability of most businesses to raise market capital, the demand for bank loans exceeds the supply. The budget provides additional liquidity and reduced risk to help increase the supply of bank credit to meet the demands of unprecedented reintermediation.

The controversial creation of a single national securities regulator is intended to strengthen the Canadian regulatory system. The establishment of a minimum grace period for new credit card purchases is provided to help consumers. Measures to improve financial literacy make sense, in principle, but the budget merely creates a task force to study the issue.

The tax measures are quite moderate, including a tax credit for home renovations, which might simply bring the underground GST evaders above ground. Clearly, households with little job security won’t be enticed to renovate for a 15% tax credit. The adjustment in income tax tranches will save individual taxpayers a maximum of $317 for high-income filers, and far less for low- and middle-income households.

Significant increases in government spending for infrastructure, training, community development, and troubled sectors will help to boost economic activity if they can be implemented quickly. There is considerable doubt that so-called ‘shovel-ready’ infrastructure spending is really all that ready to roll.

Bottom Line: On balance, the fiscal measures in this budget represent about 1.5%-to-2% of GDP in 2009. This is a large stimulus, but relative to the plans in the U.S. and China, it is relatively light and it should be. This budget is merely triage to help the hardest hit to bear the pain through temporary pain killers. At this stage, that’s about as much as Ottawa can do.



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March 24, 2010
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March 12, 2010
The U.S. Foreclosure Crisis
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March 2, 2010
Canadian Calm in a Turbulent Sea
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January 26, 2010
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January 22, 2010
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January 8, 2010
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December 8, 2009
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December 4, 2009
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November 13, 2009
Let's Cut a Deal
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October 22, 2009
Sherry Cooper Takes Questions from the Globe and Mail
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October 15, 2009
The U.S. Dollar’s Decline Is Not Such a Bad Thing
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October 2, 2009
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September 18, 2009
U.S. Job Woes: Canada 1990s Redux
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September 11, 2009
Pain Not Over Yet
By now, it is pretty obvious that the financial crisis is behind us and the global economy is experiencing a synchronized recovery MORE

September 9, 2009
Unbelievable
An article in today’s Wall Street Journal highlighted the possibility of the Chinese Investment Corporation (CIC)—the sovereign wealth fund responsible for investing roughly $300 billion (and growing) of China’s foreign exchange reserves—investing in U.S. commercial real estate which is already down roughly 35% from its peak MORE

September 4, 2009
Who's Doing All of the Saving?
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August 28, 2009
Upward Revision in Q3 U.S. Growth
We are revising upward our forecast for third quarter growth in the U.S. by a full percentage point, from an estimated 2.8% to 3.8% MORE

August 21, 2009
An Irresistible Opportunity for Successful U.S. Fiscal Stimulus
While everyone knows that the American consumer has been the weak link in this recovery, in one sector the fiscal stimulus has opened consumer wallets MORE

August 17, 2009
Strengthening Canadian-Chinese Ties
In the wake of the global recession and the plunge in the Canadian trade balance to a deficit position, Canada is working hard to strengthen business ties with Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the so-called BRIC countries MORE

August 12, 2009
As Expected, No Fed Policy Change
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July 24, 2009
Pain Not Over Yet
Since 2007, with the beginning of the U.S. housing meltdown and the ensuing financial crisis, there has been a global decline in private sector spending, a dramatic shrinkage in global trade and an unprecedented spike in government spending MORE

July 17, 2009
The Painful Process of Deleveraging
The U.S. credit bubble in the 1990s through 2007 enabled a tremendous amount of consumer and business over-spending MORE

July 10, 2009
Let's Get Real
Many fear that mounting deficits and debt will trigger inflation in the future and call for a Fed exit strategy; others are now clamouring for additional fiscal stimulus MORE

July 2, 2009
Employment and the Fed
Those who have been calling for a Fed exit strategy from the extraordinary degree of monetary ease should be silenced by the June employment results MORE

June 8, 2009
Post-Crisis Withdrawal
As financial markets heal, banks are shying away from government assistance, betting that they can rely fully on the markets to build capital positions MORE

June 5, 2009
Worst Is Behind Us
Signs of improvement in the U.S. housing market, rising consumer confidence and a rally in financial stocks in the U.S. and Canada suggest that the economies are bottoming and the worst of the financial crisis is behind us MORE

May 28, 2009
Bet You Things Are Better Than You Think
There is increasing reason to believe that the worst of the financial crisis is behind us and the U.S. and global economies are bottoming MORE

May 15, 2009
Running the Printing Presses to Fund the Deficit
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May 3, 2009
Swine flu threatens to kick economies when they are down
In the midst of the longest and perhaps deepest global recession in the postwar period, the last thing we need is rising protectionism, travel advisories and reduced business and consumer activity MORE

April 29, 2009
Fed Still Adding Juice
Although the Fed announced no new initiatives today, clearly the tone of the press release suggests that the Fed will continue to support previously announced credit easing and expects to do so “for an extended period” MORE

April 27, 2009
Swine Flu: Let's Not Get Carried Away
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April 24, 2009
Investing Is No Longer Child's Play
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March 25, 2009
Future of Finance Conference
The Who’s Who of finance descended upon Washington, D.C. Monday for 24 hours of policy analysis MORE

March 18, 2009
More Good News
Bernanke is the man, clearly the best spokesperson for the Obama administration, raising his odds of reappointment this summer MORE

March 13, 2009
Finally, Some Good News
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March 11, 2009
More Signs of Hope Needed
We are in a negative-news cycle, to say the least, and it is difficult to see a near-term end to it based on incoming data, heated policy debates and wealth-obliterating market activity MORE

February 27, 2009
A More Prudent Society
It has now been publicized around the world just how strong our banking system is in Canada MORE

February 5, 2009
The Demonization of Banks
The global financial landscape is changing rapidly and perhaps nowhere more so than in the U.S. MORE

January 30, 2009
Can You Count on Dividends?
In the U.S., the answer is certainly no. MORE

January 28, 2009
Fed Does Not Dispel Confusion
The Federal Reserve just wrapped up its first policy meeting of the New Year MORE

January 27, 2009
The Advil Budget
The 2009 Canadian budget is chock-full of government spending and rather light on the side of tax cuts, but the truth is that domestic fiscal stimulus can only ease the pain of the global recession and credit crisis MORE

January 23, 2009
Deflationary Forces Accelerate
Layoffs and reductions in hours worked have been accelerating in recent months and cover firms in virtually every sector of the U.S. economy. MORE

January 9, 2009
Recession Worsens
The latest jobs data signal that the year-long U.S. recession is worsening and the Canadian recession is moving in with full force MORE

December 18, 2008
One Major Lesson
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December 16, 2008
Fed Slashes Rate to 0-to-25 bps Range; Historic Use of Fed Balance Sheet to Ease
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December 5, 2008
Forget Old-Time Fiscal Stimulus
With today's dismal employment report, there is no doubt that the Canadian economy is in recession and the U.S. contraction is accelerating MORE

December 3, 2008
Tough Times, Aggressive Actions
There is growing evidence that the global economic slump is deepening and that consumer and business access to credit is shrinking. MORE

November 21, 2008
Urgent Action Needed
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November 15, 2008
GM Bailout - Part 2
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November 14, 2008
Should the U.S. Government Bail Out GM?
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November 6, 2008
Recession Darkens
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November 5, 2008
National Catharsis
President-elect Barack Obama has won a decisive victory, drawing support from all regions of the country and all segments of the population MORE

October 16, 2008
The Consumer Recession
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October 10, 2008
Paulson and the G-7 Do the Right Thing
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October 10, 2008
More Action-Crisis Intensifies
All overnight indicators suggest that the crisis is intensifying despite ballooning rescue efforts by governments all over the world MORE

October 9, 2008
The Wealthy Boomer interviews Sherry Cooper
Jonathan Chevreau of the National Post interviews Sherry Cooper on her book, The New Retirement. MORE

October 8, 2008
Global Rate Cuts... Finally!
In the face of intensifying financial market turmoil, major global central banks swooped in this morning with an unprecedented coordinated interest rate cut. MORE

October 7, 2008
Unbelievable Complexity
The Fed and Treasury will do whatever it takes to unfreeze credit markets. MORE

October 1, 2008
Quarterly Web Cast and Dividend Stock Screen
Sherry's latest web cast, and the latest update of the dividend stock screen featured in Sherry Cooper's book, The New Retirement MORE

September 26, 2008
Economists Weigh In
There is nothing I could write at this moment that might not be superseded by events in the next few hours. MORE

September 19, 2008
Stock Market Applauds U.S. Government Plan
What a week this has been. MORE

September 16, 2008
No Rate Change, Easing Bias
In a unanimous decision, policymakers did not cut the benchmark fed funds rate, despite the market’s call for an easing move. MORE

September 15, 2008
Fed Widens Collateral
Judging from my press calls early this morning, there appears to be a good deal of opacity in what the Fed has said regarding a broadening of the collateral it is willing to hold on short-term emergency loans to primary dealers. MORE

September 14, 2008
Wild Day Tomorrow
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September 11, 2008
Recovery Still a Year Away
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August 29, 2008
The New Cold War
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August 22, 2008
Hedge Funds Face Shock Waves
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August 7, 2008
Fed Policy Tighter than Normal at 2% Fed Funds
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August 1, 2008
Obama Just Found His Middle-America Appeal
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July 18, 2008
A Global Presidential Campaign
What better evidence is there that globalization is real and permanent than the foreign trips of both presidential candidates? MORE

July 15, 2008
Crisis Widens
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July 7, 2008
Next Shock: Currency Crisis?
The malaise of the U.S. economy is palpable MORE


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BMO Nesbitt Burns Economics