Month: March 2018

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week for the first time under the chairmanship of Jerome Powell. In a unanimous decision, the Committee hiked the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. Unlike the Bank of Canada, which has a single objective of targeting…

Data released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show a second consecutive dip in home sales across much of the country. Rising mortgage rates and tighter mortgage qualification rules have hit first-time homebuyers particularly hard, and activity was pulled-forward late last year in advance of the new OSFI rules. Existing home sales dropped…

Statistics Canada announced this morning that Canada’s jobless rate returned to a four-decade low as job growth rebounded, confirming that the jobs market is at or near full-employment. Canada added 15,400 net new jobs last month as the unemployment rate edged downward to 5.8%, its lowest level in records back to 1976. This follows January’s…

The Bank of Canada held rates steady today, as expected, highlighting “trade policy developments” as an “important and growing source of uncertainty for the global and Canadian outlooks.” As the seventh round of NAFTA negotiations commenced in Mexico City, President Trump dropped a bombshell late last week, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on imported…

Last night, I presented the housing outlook at the Adelaide Hotel (formerly the Trump Hotel) hosted by the DeGroote School of Business, McMaster University where I am an Adjunct Professor. The full PowerPoint presentation of thirty slides can be found on my website. Here are some of the highlights:

As expected, growth in the fourth quarter of last year paled in comparison to the robust performance of the first half. Statistics Canada revised up growth estimates for the first half of the year to 4.2%, from the initial estimate of 4%. Following economic expansion of a whopping 4.0% in Q1 and 4.4% in Q2,…