April 17, 2023

First Back-to-Back Canadian Home Sales Gain in March

Good News On The Canadian Housing Front The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in March edged up 1.4% in March. Homeowners and buyers were comforted by the fall in fixed mortgage rates as the Bank of Canada paused rate hikes. Bond market yields, though very volatile, have trended downward in March, although they…

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April 12, 2023

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate At 4.5%

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Again But Maintains Its Commitment To 2% Inflation The Bank of Canada left the overnight policy rate at 4.5%, as expected, stating their view that inflation will hit 3% by mid-year and reach the 2% target by next year. They admit, however, that demand continues to exceed supply,…

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April 6, 2023

Bank of Canada Not Happy With Another Strong Jobs Report

This morning’s Jobs Report was again solid. Job creation, though more tempered than in earlier months, is still robust. The unemployment rate remained at 5.0% for the fourth consecutive month. Very troubling to the Bank of Canada was the wage inflation, still above 5%. No doubt the Bank does not welcome this news. But the…

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March 28, 2023

Canada’s Federal Budget Describes a Deteriorating Fiscal Outlook and Slowing Economy

Federal Budget 2023…Press the Snooze Button As promised, there would be nothing much in this year’s budget for fear of stimulating inflation. The federal government faces a challenging fiscal environment and a weakening economy. Ottawa promised it would err on the side of restraint. Instead, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced a $43 billion increase in…

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March 21, 2023

Canada’s Headline Inflation Cools in February

Further Decline in Inflation in February Will Keep the Bank of Canada On Hold in April All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve tomorrow when they decide whether to hold rates steady because of the banking crisis or raise the overnight rate by 25 basis points (bps). Before the run on Silicon Valley Bank,…

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March 15, 2023

Canadian Housing Appears To Be Close To Bottoming

Housing Market Could Be Poised For A Spring Rebound The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in February bounced 2.3% from the previous month. Homeowners and buyers were comforted by the guidance from the Bank of Canada that it would likely pause rate hikes for the first time in a year.  The Canadian aggregate benchmark…

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March 14, 2023

Three US Banks Fail and Markets Freak Out

US Policymakers Take Emergency Action To Protect Depositors At Failed Banks Silicon Valley Bank (SVP) had a sterling reputation among the many tech start-ups it helped to finance. What brought SVB down was an old-fashioned bank run set off in 2021 by a series of bad decisions. That year, the stock market boomed, interest rates…

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March 10, 2023

Blockbuster Canadian Jobs Report For February Throws Rate Pause Into Question

Canadian Labour Market Jeopardizes Rate Pause Today’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) for February was much stronger than expected, questioning how long the Bank of Canada’s rate pause can last. Following the 150,000 jobs gain in January, economists expected a small increase of 10,000 positions and a jobless rate of 5.1%. Instead, the economy added 21,800 jobs in February,…

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March 8, 2023

Bank of Canada Pauses Rate Hikes As US Fed Promises Further Tightening

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Even As the Fed Promises to Push Higher As expected, the central bank held the overnight rate at 4.5%, ending, for now, the eight consecutive rate increases over the past year. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. This is the first pause among major central…

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February 28, 2023

Canadian GDP Slowed Dramatically in Q4 2022, Another Reason the BoC Won’t Raise Rates in March

Bad News Is Good News for the Bank of Canada Statistics Canada released the real gross domestic product (GDP) figure for the final quarter of 2022 this morning, showing a marked slowdown in economic activity. This will undoubtedly keep the central bank on the sidelines when they announce their decision on March 8. The Bank…

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