April 18, 2018

Poloz Holds Rates, Sees More Room For Growth and Rising Inflation

The Canadian dollar fell sharply immediately after the release of the Bank of Canada’s Official Statement providing a more bullish forecast for the economy while holding rates steady. The Bank hiked its estimate of noninflationary potential growth, implying there was more room to grow without triggering rate hikes. The central bank now suggests the economy…

Read More

April 16, 2018

Canada’s Housing Market Continues Soft Landing

Data released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show a small uptick in home sales nationally in March, their first monthly increase in three months. This comes on the heels of a more than 19% decline in the previous two months as the tighter mortgage stress-testing rules at federally regulated lenders have reportedly…

Read More

April 6, 2018

Canada’s Jobless Rate Remains At A 40-Year Low

Statistics Canada announced this morning that employment increased by a stronger-than-expected 32,300 in March, driven by full-time job gains. The unemployment rate was unchanged at a four-decade low of 5.8% indicating that the economy is at or near full employment. In the first quarter of 2018, employment edged down (-40,000 or -0.2%) reflecting a decrease…

Read More

March 23, 2018

A More Hawkish Fed Was Expected

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week for the first time under the chairmanship of Jerome Powell. In a unanimous decision, the Committee hiked the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. Unlike the Bank of Canada, which has a single objective of targeting…

Read More

March 15, 2018

Canada’s Housing Market Continues to Slow

Data released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show a second consecutive dip in home sales across much of the country. Rising mortgage rates and tighter mortgage qualification rules have hit first-time homebuyers particularly hard, and activity was pulled-forward late last year in advance of the new OSFI rules. Existing home sales dropped…

Read More

March 9, 2018

Canada’s Jobless Rate Returns To 40-Year Low

Statistics Canada announced this morning that Canada’s jobless rate returned to a four-decade low as job growth rebounded, confirming that the jobs market is at or near full-employment. Canada added 15,400 net new jobs last month as the unemployment rate edged downward to 5.8%, its lowest level in records back to 1976. This follows January’s…

Read More

March 7, 2018

Bank of Canada Concerned About Trade Risks

The Bank of Canada held rates steady today, as expected, highlighting “trade policy developments” as an “important and growing source of uncertainty for the global and Canadian outlooks.” As the seventh round of NAFTA negotiations commenced in Mexico City, President Trump dropped a bombshell late last week, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on imported…

Read More

March 2, 2018

Housing Outlook: Soft Landing

Last night, I presented the housing outlook at the Adelaide Hotel (formerly the Trump Hotel) hosted by the DeGroote School of Business, McMaster University where I am an Adjunct Professor. The full PowerPoint presentation of thirty slides can be found on my website. Here are some of the highlights:

Read More

March 2, 2018

Q4 Growth In Canada Last Year at 1.7%, Bringing Annual Growth to 3.0%

As expected, growth in the fourth quarter of last year paled in comparison to the robust performance of the first half. Statistics Canada revised up growth estimates for the first half of the year to 4.2%, from the initial estimate of 4%. Following economic expansion of a whopping 4.0% in Q1 and 4.4% in Q2,…

Read More

February 27, 2018

The Activist Budget—There Is No Problem This Government Cannot Fix

Patting himself on the back, the Finance Minister opened his speech by reminding us that “a little over two years ago…Canadians had the opportunity to stay the course. They could stick with a Government that favoured cuts and a set of failed policies that produced stubborn unemployment and the worst decade of economic growth since…

Read More
Page 1 of 1912345...10...Last »