February 20, 2024

Great News On The Inflation Front Cause Big Bond Rally

Canadian Inflation Falls to 2.9% in January, Boosting Rate Cut Prospects  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in January, down sharply from December’s 3.4% reading. The most significant contributor to the deceleration was a 4% decline in y/y gasoline prices, compared to a 1.4% rise the month before (see chart below). Excluding gasoline,…

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February 14, 2024

Canadian Home Sales Continued to Rise in January as Markets Tightened

Canadian Home Sales Continued Their Upward Trend in January As Prices Fell Modestly The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that home sales over the last two months show signs of recovery. National sales were up 3.7% between December 2023 and January 2024, building on the 7.9% gain in December. The chart below shows that…

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February 9, 2024

Canadian January Jobs Report Suggests No Recession In Sight

January Jobs Report Dispells Recession Fears Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for January was a mixed bag and shows the dramatic effect of surging immigration. Canadian employment rose by a stronger-than-expected 37,300, but part-time jobs rose by 48,900, and in the public sector, the gain was huge. The employment rate fell a tick because population…

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January 24, 2024

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady And Forecasts a Soft Landing

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady And Expects Rate Cuts Later This Year Today, The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting but provided an outlook suggesting that monetary easing will begin by mid-year. The Bank forecasts a soft landing for the Canadian economy, with inflation falling…

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January 16, 2024

Canadian Inflation Rises to 3.4% Y/Y In December

A Bumpy Road To The Inflation Target Canada’s headline inflation number for December ’23 moved up three bps to 3.4%, as expected, as gasoline prices didn’t fall as fast as a year ago. These so-called base effects were also evident in the earlier US inflation data for the same month. Additional acceleration came from airfares,…

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January 15, 2024

Canadian Existing Home Sales Surged in December

Canadian Home Sales Surprisingly Strong in December Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales were up noticeably month-over-month in December 2023. The December rise of 8.7% was one of last year’s strongest monthly performances.  The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions was 3.7% above December 2022, the largest…

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January 5, 2024

December Jobs Report In Canada Not As Weak As Headline Suggests

Brisk Wage Gains in December Will Keep The BoC Watchful Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for December was a mixed bag and far more robust than the weak headline figure suggests. Total employment in Canada barely budged, rising by a mere 100 jobs in the final month of last year. However, the labour force participation…

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December 19, 2023

Stronger-Than-Expected Canadian Inflation Will Keep The BoC On The Sidelines For Now

Inflation Held Steady In November Today’s inflation report was stronger than expected, unchanged from October’s 3.1% pace. While some had forecast a sub-3% reading, the November CPI data posted a welcome slowdown in food and shelter prices. Increases in recreation and clothing offset this–both are discretionary purchases. Cellular services and fuel oil prices declined on a…

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December 14, 2023

Canadian Housing Markets Bottoming

Housing Markets Prepare For A 2024 Rebound Before we get into the details of the November housing market data released this morning by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), big positive news for housing occurred yesterday. The US Federal Reserve gave its clearest signal yet that its historic policy tightening campaign is over by projecting…

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December 6, 2023

Bank of Canada Holds The Overnight Policy Rate Steady at 5% For the Third Consecutive Meeting

The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone It was widely expected that the Bank of Canada would maintain its key policy rate at 5% for the third consecutive time. It will continue to sell government securities (quantitative tightening) to normalize its balance sheet. Market participants weighed and measured each…

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