October 15, 2024

Home sales have trended up since rate cuts began, but new listings have risen faster

Canadian Housing Market Stuck In A Holding Pattern Following the Bank of Canada’s third interest rate cut of the year, national home sales increased slightly in September compared to August. This follows a similar pattern of gains recorded in the months following the first two rate cuts. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems climbed…

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October 15, 2024

Canadian inflation fell to 1.6% y/y in September, the smallest yearly increase since 2021.

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% year over year in September, the slowest pace since February 2021 and down from a 2.0% gain in August 2024. The main contributor to headline deceleration was lower year-over-year gasoline prices in September (-10.7%) compared with August (-5.1%). The all-items CPI, excluding…

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October 11, 2024

Stronger than expected Canadian jobs report for September reduces the chances of a 50-bp rate cut on October 23

Stronger-Than-Expected September Jobs Report Reduces Prospect Of Larger Rate Cuts  Statistics Canada released September employment data today, showing a marked uptick in job growth and the first decline in the unemployment rate this year. Employment rose by 46,700 in September, following four months of little change.  Despite the employment gain, the employment rate—the proportion of the…

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September 17, 2024

Great News On the Canadian Inflation Front in August

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year over year in August, the slowest pace since February 2021, and down from a 2.5% gain in July 2024. Core inflation measures averaged 2.35% y/y and excluding mortgage interest, headline inflation was a mere 1.2%–well below the Bank’s target inflation level of 2.0%….

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September 16, 2024

August Housing Activity Flat Despite Rate Cuts

Canadian Housing Market Stuck In A Holding Pattern National home sales increased in June following the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate cut since 2020, and activity posted another slight gain in August on the heels of the second rate cut in late July. Still, the bigger picture appears to be a market mostly stuck…

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September 6, 2024

Weak Canadian Labour Force Survey Sets The Stage For Further Rate Cuts

Weaker-Than-Expected August Jobs Report Raises Prospect Of Larger Rate Cuts Statistics Canada released August employment data today, showing continued growth in excess supply in labour markets nationwide. Employment changed little last month, up 22,100. The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—decreased a tick to 60.8%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly…

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September 4, 2024

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 bps to 4.25%

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Another Quarter Point Today, the Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate by another 25 basis points to 4.25%. This is the third consecutive decrease since June. The Bank’s decision reflects two main developments. First, headline and core inflation have continued to ease as expected. Second, as inflation gets…

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August 30, 2024

Canadian Q2 Real GDP Growth A Bit Stronger Than Expected, But Per Capita Real GDP Falls for The Fifth Consecutive Quarter

Q2 Canadian Growth, Boosted By Record Population Gains, Slows In June And July Canada’s economy grew a bit more than expected in the second quarter, but falling per-capita gross domestic product and softening household consumption assure the Bank of Canada that it will cut rates for a third consecutive meeting next week.  Canadian GDP rose 2.1%…

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August 20, 2024

Canadian Inflation Cools to 2.5% y/y in July, Insuring BoC Rate Cut on Sept 4

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front Inflation in Canada decelerated once again in July to its slowest pace in three years, assuring the central bank will cut rates for the third consecutive meeting on September 4. The US is also widely expected to begin easing monetary policy at its September confab.  The annual…

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August 15, 2024

Canadian Housing Market On Pause In July

Canadian Housing Market Paused In July Despite the continued decline in interest rates, the Canadian housing market saw summer doldrums last month. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales fell 0.7% monthly while rising 4.8% from year-ago levels. A significant uptick in sales activity is likely this fall, reflecting both…

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