September 20, 2017

No Fed Rate Hike Today, But Will Begin Shrinking Balance Sheet Next Month

While the Fed policymakers left rates unchanged today, as expected, they signalled that there would be one more rate hike this year and three next year. At least one Federal Reserve policymaker has joined Jim Bullard, President of the St. Louis Fed and the resident inflation dove, in predicting no rate hikes next year; but…

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September 15, 2017

Canadian Housing Activity Still Well Below the Peak

This morning’s release of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data for August posted a modest uptick in sales last month, ending a string of four consecutive monthly declines. However, activity remained 13.8% below the record set in March, prior to the April announcement of a 15% foreign buyers’ tax and a sixteen-point program to…

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September 8, 2017

Canadian Unemployment Rate in August Falls to 6.2%

The Bank of Canada told us just this week that they would be closely monitoring the employment data to assess the need for further tightening in monetary policy. The August jobs report confirmed that the Canadian labour market remains strong, moving closer to full employment. The country added 22,200 jobs in August, the ninth consecutive…

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September 6, 2017

Bank of Canada Takes Action

The Bank of Canada raised the target overnight rate another 25 basis points to 1.0% making it two hikes in a row following seven years of increasing monetary stimulus. The outsized 4.5% growth in GDP in the second quarter precipitated this action, despite two offsetting factors: the recent surge in the Canadian dollar, up more…

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September 6, 2017

Booming Growth In Canada

The Canadian economy grew at a blockbuster pace in the second quarter at an annualized rate of 4.5% on the heels of the first quarter’s robust pace of 3.7%. The cumulative growth in the first half of this year was the strongest since 2002. The Canadian economy has now grown at more than double the…

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August 15, 2017

Housing Market Weakens Further in July, But Drag From GTA Dissipates

This morning’s release of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data for July confirmed that key housing markets in Canada continued to slow, led by the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region surrounding Toronto. This region’s marked slowdown began in late April with the announcement of a 15% foreign tax credit and a sixteen-point program to…

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August 4, 2017

Canadian Unemployment Rate in July Falls to 6.3 percent–Lowest in Nearly Eight Years

Canada’s red-hot jobs market took a breather in July, posting employment gains of 10,900, up just 0.1 percent following much stronger job gains since late last year. As the labour force participation rate edged downward, the jobless rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 6.3 percent, its best reading in almost nine years. Canada’s economy remains…

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July 12, 2017

Bank of Canada Turns the Tide

For the first time in seven years, the Bank of Canada announced today that it was hiking its key overnight rate by a quarter percentage point (25 basis points) bringing it to 0.75 percent as the economy has staged a broadly based economic expansion this year. In a break from tradition, the Bank has taken…

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July 7, 2017

Continued Strength in Canadian Employment Report For June

The June jobs data blew past expectations, all but insuring that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates by a quarter point next week–the first rate hike in seven years. Market rates have already risen in expectation and the Royal Bank has boosted interest rates on its two-year, three-year and five-year fixed-term mortgage rates…

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June 15, 2017

GTA Sales Down Sharply as New Listings Surge In May

This morning’s release of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data for May confirmed earlier data from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) pointing to a marked slowdown in housing activity in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) since the late April announcement of the 15% foreign tax credit and the sixteen point program to enhance…

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