June 16, 2025

Canadian national home sales were up 3.6% month-over-month

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelines Buyers Canadian existing home sales recorded over the MLS Systems climbed 3.6% between April and May, a normally strong month for housing, marking the first gain in activity since last November.  The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Calgary, and Ottawa led the monthly increase. “May 2025 not only saw home sales move…

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June 6, 2025

Weak Canadian Labour Report in May Points Towards BoC Easing

Labour Market Weakness Continued in May, Raising the Prospects of a Rate Cut at The Next BoC Meeting Today’s Labour Force Survey for May showed a marked adverse impact of tariffs on the Canadian economy. Employment held steady for the second consecutive month at a modest net job change of 8,800–below expectations.  Growth in full-time…

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June 4, 2025

Bank of Canada holds rates steady for second consecutive meeting as Q1 GDP surprised on the high side and tariff-related inflation remains a risk.

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady for the Second Consecutive Meeting–But Two More Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year As expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, the second consecutive rate hold since the Bank cut overnight rates seven times in the past year. The governing council…

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May 30, 2025

Q1 Canadian GDP Comes In Stronger Than Expected Owing to Tariffs

Q1 GDP Growth Was Bolstered by Tariff Reaction As Residential Construction and Resale Activity Weakened Further Statistics Canada released Q1 GDP data showing a stronger-than-expected 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate, a tick above the pace of the quarter before. Exports drove growth as companies in the United States rushed to stockpile Canadian products before U.S. President…

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May 20, 2025

Canadian headline inflation fell to 1.7% y/y in April owing to end of carbon tax and falling energy prices.

Today’s Inflation Report Poses a Conundrum for the Bank of Canada The headline inflation report for April showed a marked slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose a mere 1.7% year over year (y/y), down sharply from the 2.3% rise in March. The slowdown in April was driven by lower energy prices, which fell 12.7% following…

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May 15, 2025

Canadian National Home Sales Unchanged In April As New Listings and Home Prices Fall

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelines Buyers Canadian existing home sales were unchanged last month as tariff concerns again mothballed home-buying intentions, mainly in the GTA and GVA where sales have declined for months. Consumer confidence has fallen to rock-bottom levels as many fear the prospect of job losses and higher prices.  The number of sales recorded…

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May 9, 2025

Weak Canadian Jobs Report for April As Tariffs Hit Manufacturing

Manufacturing Employment Plunged as Tariffs Weakened the Economy Today’s Labour Force Survey for April showed a marked adverse impact of tariffs on the Canadian economy. Early evidence suggests that the slowing economy will be the primary fallout of tariffs, with upward pressure on prices a secondary impact. The central bank’s actions will mitigate inflation while…

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April 16, 2025

The Bank of Canada holds rates steady in the face of tariff uncertainty

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady In The Face Of Tariff Uncertainty–More Rate Cuts Coming The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, as expected by half of the market, to mark the first hold following 225 basis points of cuts in seven consecutive decisions. The governing council noted…

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April 15, 2025

Tariffs Dampen Canada’s Spring Housing Season

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelines Buyers Canadian existing home sales plunged last month as tariff concerns again mothballed home-buying intentions. Consumer confidence has fallen to rock-bottom levels as many fear the prospect of job losses and higher prices.  According to data released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association, existing home sales declined by 4.8% month-over-month….

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April 15, 2025

Better than expected Canadian inflation in March may not be enough to trigger another BoC rate cut tomorrow

Weaker Than Expected Inflation May Not Be Enough to Trigger Another Bank of Canada Rate Cut Tomorrow Canadian consumer prices rose 0.3% in March (or remained flat when seasonally adjusted), which was lower than expected, reducing the annual inflation rate by 0.3 percentage points to 2.3%. This decrease in headline inflation followed the complete removal…

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