Articles

Bank of Canada Lowers Policy Rate to 2.5% Today, the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5% as was widely expected. Following yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation report, the Bank believes that underlying inflation was 2.5% year-over-year. Through the recent period of tariff turmoil, the Governing Council has closely monitored the…

Canadian Inflation More Muted Than Expected, Giving the Green Light for BoC Easing Tomorrow The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 1.7% increase in July. Gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent year over year in August (-12.7%) compared to July (-16.1%), resulting in faster growth in headline…

Canadian Home Sales Post Best August In Four Years Today’s release of the August housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed good news on the housing front. The number of home sales recorded through Canadian MLS® Systems increased by 1.1% on a month-over-month basis in August 2025. It was the best August for…

Weak August Jobs Report in Canada Bodes Well for a BoC Rate Cut Today’s Labour Force Survey for August was weaker than expected, indicating an excess supply in the labour market and the economy. Employment fell by 66,000 (-0.3%) in August, extending the decline recorded in July (-41,000; -0.2%). The employment decrease in August was mainly due to a…

Tariff Turmoil Takes Its Toll Statistics Canada released Q2 GDP data, showing a weaker-than-expected -1.6% seasonally adjusted annual rate, in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast, but a larger dip than the consensus forecast. The contraction primarily reflected a sharp decline in exports, down 26.8%, which reduced headline GDP growth by 8.1 percentage points. Business fixed…

Today’s CPI Report Shows Headline Inflation Cooling, But Core Inflation Remains Troubling Canadian consumer prices decelerated to 1.7% y/y in July, a bit better than expected and down two ticks from June’s reading.  Gasoline prices led the slowdown in the all-items CPI, falling 16.1% year over year in July, following a 13.4% decline in June. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5%…

Canadian Homebuyers Return in July, Posting the Fourth Consecutive Sales Gain Today’s release of the July housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed good news on the housing front. Following a disappointing spring selling season, National home sales were up 3.8% in July from the month before, with Toronto seeing transactions rebound 35.5%…

Canada’s July Labour Force Survey Was the Weakest Since 2022 Employment fell by 40,800 jobs in July, a weak start to the third quarter, driven by decreases in full-time work, with most of the decline in the private sector. The jobless rate held steady at 6.9%, even though the number of unemployed people fell. The monthly…

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady As Tariff Turmoil Continues As expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, the third consecutive rate hold since the Bank cut overnight rates seven times in the past year. The Governing Council noted that the unpredictability of the magnitude and…

Home Sales Rose As Prices Stabilized–Housing Market is Turning a Corner The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems rose 2.8% on a month-over-month basis in June 2025, building on the 3.5% gain recorded in May. Over the past two months, the recovery in sales activity has been led overwhelmingly by the Greater…