Articles

Stronger-Than-Expected Canadian Q3 GDP Growth Seals the Deal on a BoC Rate Hold   GDP in Canada expanded at an annualized 2.6% pace in the third quarter, rebounding from a revised 1.8% drop in the previous period and well above forecasts of 0.5%. It is the largest increase in GDP this year, with imports sinking 8.6% while…

Signs of Improvement in Canadian Housing Activity Today’s release of October housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the national housing market bounced back, with sales and prices rising. Buyers benefited from the interest rate cuts this year.  The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems edged up 0.9% on…

Canadian Inflation Slows in October, But Not Enough to Trigger Another BoC Rate Cut in December The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis in October, down from 2.4% in September. The all-items CPI decelerated largely due to gasoline prices, which fell at a faster year-over-year pace in October (-9.4%) than in September (-4.1%). Excluding gasoline,…

Forget A December BoC Rate Cut: October Labour Force Survey Much Stronger Than Expected Today’s Labour Force Survey for October showed a stronger-than-expected net employment gain of 66,600, on the heels of September’s upside surprise. Cumulative gains in September and October (+127,000; +0.6%) have offset cumulative declines observed in July and August (-106,000; -0.5%). Even more unexpected…

Federal Budget Revamp, FY 2025-2026 Today, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presented his first budget. Mark Carney was elected Prime Minister with a mandate to transform Canada’s economy and reduce its dependence on trade with the United States. The Carney government’s inaugural budget emphasizes structural changes to strengthen the domestic economy and boost non-U.S. exports, and…

Bank of Canada Lowers Policy Rate to 2.25% Today, the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25% as was widely expected. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. The economy will grow at about a…

Canadian Inflation Stronger Than Expected The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in September, up from a 1.9% increase in August. The acceleration in headline inflation from 1.9% in August was also larger than the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which was 2.2%. On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices fell…

Canadian Home Sales Post Best September In Four Years Today’s release of the September housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed a pullback on the housing front. The number of home sales recorded through Canadian MLS® Systems declined by 1.7% on a month-over-month basis in September 2025. Nevertheless, it was the best month of…

Canadian Employment Rises More Than Expected, But Not Enough To Fully Offset Prior Two-Month Job Loss Today’s Labour Force Survey for September was stronger than expected, with a net employment gain of 60,400, but the unemployment rate was steady at 7.1% as more people entered the workforce. The employment gain was driven by full-time work….

Bank of Canada Lowers Policy Rate to 2.5% Today, the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5% as was widely expected. Following yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation report, the Bank believes that underlying inflation was 2.5% year-over-year. Through the recent period of tariff turmoil, the Governing Council has closely monitored the…