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The Canadian economy continues to show marked resilience to high-interest rates. Statistics Canada released data this morning showing real GDP rose at an above-consensus 3.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year. The estimate for April growth was also firm, a harbinger of continued strength in Q2. The combined drags of the public sector strike and…

The Canadian inflation rate accelerated for the first time in nearly a year The slight upward movement in the latest Canadian inflation numbers is an indication that the road to the central bank’s 2% target will be a “bumpy” one, according to economist Sherry Cooper (pictured). Fresh numbers from Statistics Canada showed an uptick in…

Canadian Inflation Rose More Than Expected in April, But Core Inflation Slowed Canadian Inflation Rose More Than Expected in April, But Core Inflation Slowed  There’s been an unexpected hiccup in the Bank of Canada’s ongoing battle against inflation. Year-over-year, price pressures escalated to 4.4% in April, an uptick from the previous month’s 4.3% and significantly exceeding the…

Vital Spring Housing Market Bodes Well For The Economy The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in April surged 11.3% month-over-month. The Spring rebound was on the heels of smaller back-to-back gains in the prior two months. Now that the Bank of Canada paused interest rate hikes and home prices in most regions have…

High Interest Rates Have Not Slowed the Labour Market Sufficiently The Canadian labour market has done it again, blowing past expectations for the fifth straight month. In April, a whopping 41,400 new jobs were added, more than double what economists predicted. Since February, monthly employment growth has averaged 33,000, following cumulative increases of 219,000 in December 2022 and January 2023. The employment…

Weakening Housing Markets Pose A Risk For The Canadian Economy On April 18, Canada’s national banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), released its second Annual Risk Outlook (ARO), outlining what it believes are the most significant headwinds facing the Canadian financial system – and what the regulator plans on doing about it….

Great News On The Inflation Front The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell sharply in March to 4.3% year-over-year, continuing a pattern of repeated declines. Before we break out the champagne, however, much of the drop in inflation resulted from the steep monthly increase in prices in March one year ago (1.4% m/m), the so-called base-year…

Good News On The Canadian Housing Front The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in March edged up 1.4% in March. Homeowners and buyers were comforted by the fall in fixed mortgage rates as the Bank of Canada paused rate hikes. Bond market yields, though very volatile, have trended downward in March, although they…

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Again But Maintains Its Commitment To 2% Inflation The Bank of Canada left the overnight policy rate at 4.5%, as expected, stating their view that inflation will hit 3% by mid-year and reach the 2% target by next year. They admit, however, that demand continues to exceed supply,…

This morning’s Jobs Report was again solid. Job creation, though more tempered than in earlier months, is still robust. The unemployment rate remained at 5.0% for the fourth consecutive month. Very troubling to the Bank of Canada was the wage inflation, still above 5%. No doubt the Bank does not welcome this news. But the…