Reporting on Sherry

It’s a Close Call Which Way the Bank Will Go Employment growth last month came in at a whopping 60,000 jobs, tripling expectations, and most of those net new jobs were for full-time workers. As our population grows, more people are available to fill job vacancies. Employment rose in wholesale and retail trade (+33,000), manufacturing (+27,000),…

Will the May Inflation Decline Thwart Another Rate Hike in July? The May inflation data, released this morning by Statistics Canada, bore no surprises. The year-over-year (y/y) inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.4% was just as expected–down a full percentage point from the April reading. This is the smallest increase since June 2021. Economists…

Strong May Housing Triggered BoC Rate Hike The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in May rose 5.1% month-over-month (m/m), adding to the 11.1% gain in April. This brought the year-over-year sales gain to 1.4%, The first y/y sales increase in almost two years. While spring home sales started booming (compared to the past…

May’s Softer Labour Market Data Ended The Longest Run Of Job Gains Since 2017 Ironically, the May Labour Force Survey showed a modest slowdown two days after the Bank of Canada surprised the markets by raising interest rates. Employment was little changed in May, down 17,300, all for youth aged 15 to 24. All other…

Holy Smokes, The Bank of Canada Means Business If there were any doubt that the Bank of Canada wanted inflation to fall to 2%, it would be obliterated today. In a relatively surprising move, the Bank hiked the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, and an equivalent hike will follow in the prime…

The Canadian economy continues to show marked resilience to high-interest rates. Statistics Canada released data this morning showing real GDP rose at an above-consensus 3.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year. The estimate for April growth was also firm, a harbinger of continued strength in Q2. The combined drags of the public sector strike and…

The Canadian inflation rate accelerated for the first time in nearly a year The slight upward movement in the latest Canadian inflation numbers is an indication that the road to the central bank’s 2% target will be a “bumpy” one, according to economist Sherry Cooper (pictured). Fresh numbers from Statistics Canada showed an uptick in…

Canadian Inflation Rose More Than Expected in April, But Core Inflation Slowed Canadian Inflation Rose More Than Expected in April, But Core Inflation Slowed  There’s been an unexpected hiccup in the Bank of Canada’s ongoing battle against inflation. Year-over-year, price pressures escalated to 4.4% in April, an uptick from the previous month’s 4.3% and significantly exceeding the…

Vital Spring Housing Market Bodes Well For The Economy The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in April surged 11.3% month-over-month. The Spring rebound was on the heels of smaller back-to-back gains in the prior two months. Now that the Bank of Canada paused interest rate hikes and home prices in most regions have…

High Interest Rates Have Not Slowed the Labour Market Sufficiently The Canadian labour market has done it again, blowing past expectations for the fifth straight month. In April, a whopping 41,400 new jobs were added, more than double what economists predicted. Since February, monthly employment growth has averaged 33,000, following cumulative increases of 219,000 in December 2022 and January 2023. The employment…