October 24, 2017

Trudeau Government Increases Spending As The Economy Nears Full Employment

The Canadian economy has grown at a stronger-than-expected annual rate of 3.7% in the past year, taking the jobless rate down to its lowest level in nearly a decade. With Canada’s economy the strongest in the Group of Seven countries, Ottawa now projects much smaller deficits than it did in March. The Liberal government cut…

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October 18, 2017

Canadian Housing Activity Stabilizes Well Below Peak Levels

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales in September rose modestly from the previous month but remained below levels recorded one year ago. Resale activity was 12% below the record set in March, before the April announcement of a 15% foreign buyers’ tax and a sixteen-point program to enhance housing affordability…

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October 6, 2017

Wages Growth Accelerates as Canada Adds Jobs For the 10th Straight Month

While the headline net jobs gain was a disappointing 10,000–well below the average monthly increase in the past year–the underlying data in this morning’s StatsCanada release were quite robust. The jobless rate remained unchanged at 6.2 per cent as the acceleration in wage gains suggests that the economy is close to full employment. Average hourly…

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September 29, 2017

Booming Growth In Canada Takes A Breather

Canada’s second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.5 per cent triggered two back-to-back rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. But today, Statistics Canada released data showing a slowdown in the monthly industry data for July. Canadian GDP held steady in July ending an eight-month streak of cosmic expansion. This slowing is consistent with…

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September 20, 2017

No Fed Rate Hike Today, But Will Begin Shrinking Balance Sheet Next Month

While the Fed policymakers left rates unchanged today, as expected, they signalled that there would be one more rate hike this year and three next year. At least one Federal Reserve policymaker has joined Jim Bullard, President of the St. Louis Fed and the resident inflation dove, in predicting no rate hikes next year; but…

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September 15, 2017

Canadian Housing Activity Still Well Below the Peak

This morning’s release of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data for August posted a modest uptick in sales last month, ending a string of four consecutive monthly declines. However, activity remained 13.8% below the record set in March, prior to the April announcement of a 15% foreign buyers’ tax and a sixteen-point program to…

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September 8, 2017

Canadian Unemployment Rate in August Falls to 6.2%

The Bank of Canada told us just this week that they would be closely monitoring the employment data to assess the need for further tightening in monetary policy. The August jobs report confirmed that the Canadian labour market remains strong, moving closer to full employment. The country added 22,200 jobs in August, the ninth consecutive…

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September 6, 2017

Bank of Canada Takes Action

The Bank of Canada raised the target overnight rate another 25 basis points to 1.0% making it two hikes in a row following seven years of increasing monetary stimulus. The outsized 4.5% growth in GDP in the second quarter precipitated this action, despite two offsetting factors: the recent surge in the Canadian dollar, up more…

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September 6, 2017

Booming Growth In Canada

The Canadian economy grew at a blockbuster pace in the second quarter at an annualized rate of 4.5% on the heels of the first quarter’s robust pace of 3.7%. The cumulative growth in the first half of this year was the strongest since 2002. The Canadian economy has now grown at more than double the…

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August 15, 2017

Housing Market Weakens Further in July, But Drag From GTA Dissipates

This morning’s release of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data for July confirmed that key housing markets in Canada continued to slow, led by the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region surrounding Toronto. This region’s marked slowdown began in late April with the announcement of a 15% foreign tax credit and a sixteen-point program to…

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