Articles

The Canadian Housing Market Ends 2024 On a Weak Note

Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems softened in December, falling 5.8% compared to November. However, they were still 13% above their level in May, just before the Bank of Canada began cutting interest rates. 

The fourth quarter of 2024 saw sales up 10% from the third quarter and stood among the more muscular quarters for activity in the last 20 years, not accounting for the pandemic.

“The number of homes sold across Canada declined in December compared to a stronger October and November, although that was likely more of a supply story than a demand story,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “Our forecast continues to be for a significant unleashing of demand in the spring of 2025, with the expected bottom for interest rates coinciding with sellers listing properties in big numbers once the snow melts.”

New Listings

New listings dipped 1.7% month-over-month in December, marking three straight monthly declines following a jump in new supply last September.

“While housing market activity may take a breather over the winter with fewer properties for sale, the fall market rebound serves as a good preview of what could happen this spring,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “Spring in real estate always comes earlier than both sellers and buyers anticipate. The outlook is for buyers to start coming off the sidelines in big numbers in just a few months from now.”

With sales down by more than new listings on a month-over-month basis in December, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased back to 56.9%, down from a 17-month high of 59.3% in November. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 128,000 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of 2024, up 7.8% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average of around 150,000 listings.

There were 3.9 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of 2024, up from a 15-month low of 3.6 months at the end of November but still well below the long-term average of five months of inventory. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months and a buyer’s market would be above 6.5 months. That means the current balance of supply and demand nationally is still close to seller’s market territory.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 0.3% from November to December 2024 – the second straight month-over-month increase.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood just 0.2% below December 2023, the smallest decline since prices dipped into negative year-over-year territory last April.

The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $676,640 in December 2024, up 2.5% from December 2023.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate-cutting and regulatory changes that make housing more affordable have ignited the Canadian housing market. While the conflagration isn’t likely to peak until spring, a seasonally strong period for housing, activity already started to pick up in the fourth quarter. 

Today, we saw a welcome dip in US inflation in December. Softer core US CPI inflation in December will give the Fed some breathing room ahead of the uncertain impact of tariffs. With the coming inauguration of Donald Trump, there is an inordinate amount of uncertainty. If Trump imposed tariffs on Canada in the early days of his administration, the Canadian economy would slow markedly, and inflation would mount. This could curtail the Bank of Canada’s easing and even trigger a tightening monetary policy if inflation rises too much. 

Market-driven interest rates have risen sharply in recent weeks, pushing the interest rate on 5-year Government of Canada bonds upward. US ten-year yields are at 4.67%, up considerably since early December. Canadian ten-year yields have risen as well, but at 3.44%, they are more than 120 basis points below the US, well outside historical norms. 

The central bank meets again on January 29 and will likely cut the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 3.0%. Canada’s homegrown political uncertainty muddies the waters. The Parliament is prorogued until March as the Liberals decide on a new leader. The subsequent election adds to the volatility and uncertainty. We hold to the view that overnight rates will fall to 2.5% by midyear, triggering a strong Spring selling season.