Author: Sherry Cooper

Rarely has there been a more widely expected result as today’s 0.25 percent rate hike by the Fed. This is the second interest rate increase since the Fed started the current process of interest rate re-normalization one year ago. Although, many had called for additional hikes earlier this year, the policy makers held the overnight…

It is no surprise to anyone that the Bank of Canada maintained its target overnight rate at 1/2 percent today, judging that although the global economy has strengthened, uncertainty continues and is damaging business confidence and dampening investment in Canada’s major trading partners. Since the Trump victory, US interest rates have risen sharply with the…

Following four consecutive months of job gains, Canadian employment increased by 11,000 (or 0.1%) in November. Economists had expected hiring to decline by 15,000 according to the Bloomberg News survey. All of the rise in employment, however, was in part-time jobs, as full-time hiring fell by 8,700. This pattern is particularly worrisome as over the…

According to data released this morning by Statistics Canada, the Canadian economy bounced back strongly in the third quarter from the Alberta-wildfire contraction in Q2. The economy grew at a 3.5% (quarter-over-quarter) annual rate in Q3, in line with expectation, following the 1.3% slide in the prior period. The rebound was driven by a sharp…

This morning, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released its national real estate statistics for October, which showed a modest uptick in home sales nationally, as new listings ticked up and home prices increased once again. For Canada as a whole, the number of homes trading on the MLS Systems increased 2.0% month-over-month in October–up…

Secretary Clinton called Donald Trump to concede the election just before 3:00 AM this morning and will no doubt speak to the American people later today. A populist uprising that has very disturbing elements of racism, xenophobia, misogyny and isolationism has taken Donald Trump to the White House–a man with no experience in government or public…

Canadian employment rose 44,000 (+0.2%) in October–much stronger than expected. But all of the gain was because of more part-time work, as full-time employment fell. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.0% as more people joined the labour force. Compared to one year ago, the total number of hours worked was little changed and employment…

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) issued its quarterly housing market assessment and outlook today, suggesting that, for the first time ever, there are “problematic conditions” in housing markets at the national level in Canada (see table below for details). As well, CMHC expects national housing starts and MLS sales to decline slightly in 2017 before…

It is no surprise to anyone that the Bank of Canada maintained its target overnight rate at 1/2 percent today, judging that the underlying trend in total CPI inflation will edge upward to 2 percent starting early next year. Temporary offsetting factors, such as the fall in commodity prices and the decline in the loonie…

A perfect example of the unpredictable volatility in the Canadian jobs report, the September gain of 67,000 jobs was dramatically larger than economists’ expectations of roughly 7,500 new jobs. Most of the rise was in part-time work, however, and it was boosted by 50,000 additional self-employed workers, which tempers the excitement over the outsized strength…