Author: Sherry Cooper

Crude oil prices are poised for their biggest monthly gain in seven years, hitting a new high for 2016, and as day follows night, the Canadian dollar is up sharply–just shy of 80 cents U.S. Today’s February GDP report was not as weak as expected following the blowout number in January, leaving Canada likely to…

To no one’s surprise, the Bank of Canada left its target overnight rate unchanged at 1/2 percent. The Bank, however, reduced its forecast for the global economy and for the U.S. economy as well, suggesting that the outlook for Canadian exports is less favorable than earlier forecast. (Table 1 below shows the Bank’s current global…

Following three months of little job growth, economists expected to see a modest 5,000 increase in employment in March. The jobless rate was forecast to hold steady at 7.3%, matching the highest level in over 3 years. Surprise! March came in like a lion, with employment up 41,000 (+0.2%)–the strongest reading in five months. This…

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Today’s budget included everything I expected and nothing that I feared. The fears first—there is no change in the tax treatment of capital gains or stock options, despite continued rumours and speculation. Indeed, in a press conference in the lock-up, Minister Morneau said that stock options tax changes are off the table because they are…

Today’s stronger than expected fourth quarter GDP figure of 0.8% annualized growth did little to assuage concerns that the Canadian economy is growing well below potential. Many expected growth to be flat in the final quarter of last year. The growth figure released today by Statistics Canada was boosted by the biggest drop in imports…

Diverging Housing Markets Continue Data released earlier this week for January showed the stunning disparity in regional housing markets in Canada (see chart below). Vancouver remains the red-hot leader with year-over-year (y/y) price gains of 20.6% and home resales growth of an eye-popping 32.1%. In comparison, Toronto’s housing market seems almost tepid, with an annual…

In an evenly divided call by market analysts, the Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 percent. The Bank said that inflation prospects are largely as expected and that “the dynamics of the global economy are broadly as anticipated in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).” Really?  Oil prices…

Expectations of a Bank of Canada rate cut next week are mounting and for good reason. The Canadian economy is showing signs of considerable weakness and business investment plans have been cut. Oil prices continue to decline sharply and Iranian oil supply will be coming on stream shortly. Energy companies continue to slash payrolls and…

From Business News Network (BNN): The impact of collapsing crude prices is putting a damper on Canadian business sentiment far beyond the oil patch, the Bank of Canada said in its quarterly business outlook survey. BNN speaks to Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres for reaction.