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The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Until Core Inflation Falls Further Today, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Policymakers remain concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation. The latest data show that CPI inflation fell…

Still No Recession In Canada Thanks to Huge Influx of Immigrants Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose a moderate 1.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), a tad better than expected and the Q3 contraction of -1.2% was revised to -0.5%. This leaves growth for 2023 at a moderate 1.1%. Monthly data, also released today by Statistics…

Canadian Inflation Falls to 2.9% in January, Boosting Rate Cut Prospects  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in January, down sharply from December’s 3.4% reading. The most significant contributor to the deceleration was a 4% decline in y/y gasoline prices, compared to a 1.4% rise the month before (see chart below). Excluding gasoline,…

Canadian Home Sales Continued Their Upward Trend in January As Prices Fell Modestly The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that home sales over the last two months show signs of recovery. National sales were up 3.7% between December 2023 and January 2024, building on the 7.9% gain in December. The chart below shows that…

January Jobs Report Dispells Recession Fears Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for January was a mixed bag and shows the dramatic effect of surging immigration. Canadian employment rose by a stronger-than-expected 37,300, but part-time jobs rose by 48,900, and in the public sector, the gain was huge. The employment rate fell a tick because population…

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady And Expects Rate Cuts Later This Year Today, The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting but provided an outlook suggesting that monetary easing will begin by mid-year. The Bank forecasts a soft landing for the Canadian economy, with inflation falling…

A Bumpy Road To The Inflation Target Canada’s headline inflation number for December ’23 moved up three bps to 3.4%, as expected, as gasoline prices didn’t fall as fast as a year ago. These so-called base effects were also evident in the earlier US inflation data for the same month. Additional acceleration came from airfares,…

Canadian Home Sales Surprisingly Strong in December Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales were up noticeably month-over-month in December 2023. The December rise of 8.7% was one of last year’s strongest monthly performances.  The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions was 3.7% above December 2022, the largest…

Brisk Wage Gains in December Will Keep The BoC Watchful Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for December was a mixed bag and far more robust than the weak headline figure suggests. Total employment in Canada barely budged, rising by a mere 100 jobs in the final month of last year. However, the labour force participation…

Inflation Held Steady In November Today’s inflation report was stronger than expected, unchanged from October’s 3.1% pace. While some had forecast a sub-3% reading, the November CPI data posted a welcome slowdown in food and shelter prices. Increases in recreation and clothing offset this–both are discretionary purchases. Cellular services and fuel oil prices declined on a…