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Weaker-Than-Expected July Jobs Report Keeps BoC Rate Cuts In-Play Canadian employment data, released today by Statistics Canada, showed a continued slowdown, which historically would have been a harbinger of recession. This cycle, immigration has augmented the growth of the labour force and consumer spending, forestalling a significant economic downturn.  Employment declined again in July, down…

Canadian Inflation Fell in June, Setting the Stage For BoC Rate Cut Inflation unexpectedly slipped 0.1% (not seasonally adjusted) in June, following a 0.6% increase in May. This was the first decline in six months. The monthly decrease was driven by lower prices for travel tours (-11.1%) and gasoline (-3.1%).  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over year…

Early Signs Of Renewed Life In June Housing Markets  The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales rose 3.7% between May and June following the Bank of Canada’s rate cut. While activity was still muted, it wasn’t nearly as weak as the media recently portrayed.  “It wasn’t a ‘blow the doors…

Weaker-Than-Expected June Jobs Report Keeps BoC Rate Cuts In Play Canadian employment data, released today by Statistics Canada, showed a marked slowdown, which historically would have been a harbinger of recession. This cycle, immigration has augmented the growth of the labour force and consumer spending, forestalling a significant economic downturn. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada…

Canadian Inflation Rose In May, Surprising Markets Inflation unexpectedly rose in May, disappointing the Bank of Canada as it deliberates the possibility of another rate cut next month.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% in May from a year ago, up from a 2.7% reading in April. This increase primarily reflects higher prices for…

May Was Another Sleepy Month For Housing The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales fell 0.6% in May, remaining slightly below the average of the past ten years. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity was 5.9% below May 2023.  With the Bank of Canada rate cut on June 5, housing activity…

May Jobs ReportIn the first major data release since the Bank of Canada cut interest rates on Wednesday, Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey for May showed a marked slowdown from the April surge. Employment was little changed and the employment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 61.3%, the seventh decrease in the past eight months. The…

A Collective Sigh of Relief As The BoC Cut Rates For the First Time In 27 Month Today, the Bank of Canada boosted consumer and business confidence by cutting the overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75% and pledged to continue reducing the size of its balance sheet. The news came on the heels of…

Odds of a Rate Cut Next Week Rise with Disappointed Canadian GDP Growth The likelihood of a rate cut next week has increased due to disappointing Canadian GDP growth. Real gross domestic product (GDP) only rose by 1.7% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of this year, which is well below the expected…

Canadian Inflation Eased Again in April, Raising the Chances of a June Rate Cut The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.9% in March. This marks the fourth consecutive decline in core inflation. Food prices, services, and durable goods led to the broad-based deceleration in the headline CPI. The…