Reporting on Sherry

Bank of Canada Leaves Expectations For 2022 Rate Hikes Intact The Bank of Canada decided to keep its target for the overnight rate at 0.25%, in line with forecasts and to maintain its forward guidance, which sees a rise in the overnight rate sometime in the middle quarters of 2022. Until then, policymakers vowed to…

Another Blockbuster Jobs Report in November Statistics Canada released the November Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting employment gains of 153,700 last month–four times bigger than expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 6% from the 6.7% rate posted in October and is only 0.3 percentage points above the 5.7% rate posted in February 2020 before the…

Canadian Economy Bounced Back Sharply In Q3 In line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast, the economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter following the weak performance in Q2. Stats Canada announced this morning that GDP grew by a whopping 5.4% in Q3 following the downwardly revised 3.2% earlier in Q2. As pandemic restrictions phased out…

Inflation Surge Is No Need For Hysteria StatsCanada today reported that consumer price inflation rose to 4.7% from year-ago levels in October, compared to 4.4% in September. This is in line with market expectations and is well below the US’s 6.2% pace reported for the same period. Inflation is rising all over the world, the…

Home Sales Surge in October Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing-home sales rose a whopping 8.6% in October, its most robust month-over-month pace since July 2020, when the first lockdown eased briefly. This was on the heels of a modest uptick in September–the first gain since March of this year.Sales were…

A More Normal Jobs Report In October Statistics Canada released the October Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting a slowdown in employment growth from the blockbuster pace of recent months. While some commentators were disappointed in the results, I have a more positive take. Canada returned its pre-pandemic level of employment in September ahead of…

Bank of Canada Responds To Mounting Inflation: Ends QE and Hastens Timing of Rate Hike The Bank of Canada surprised markets today with a more hawkish stance on inflation and the economy. The Bank released its widely anticipated October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in which its key messages were: The Canadian economy has accelerated robustly…

Prices are Rising Everywhere–Transitory Can Last A Long Time Today’s release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Canada showed year-over-year (y/y) inflation rising from 4.1% in August to 4.4%, its highest level since February 2003. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.5% y/y last month. The monthly CPI rose 0.2% in September, at the…

Canadian Home Prices Continued to Rise As Insufficient Supply Creates Excess Demand Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing-home sales rose 0.9% between August and September 2021, posting the first monthly gain since March (see chart below). On a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis, the number of transactions last month was down 17.5%. Nevertheless,…

Blockbuster September Jobs Report–Further Fuel For Rising Interest Rates Statistics Canada released the September Labour Force Survey this morning, providing some unmitigated good news on the jobs front. Employment rose by 157,000 (+0.8%) in September, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9%. Employment gains in September were concentrated in full-time work and among people…