Reporting on Sherry

Today’s May employment report showed the jobless rate dropping unexpectedly even further to 3.8%–considerably below the level the Fed once considered to be full employment. It wasn’t long ago that the Fed estimated the long-run equilibrium jobless rate in the range of 4.3%-to-4.7%. Economic theory tells us that very tight labour markets can generate inflation…

This morning, Stats Canada released the first quarter GDP figures indicating a slowdown in growth in the first quarter to a 1.3% annual rate compared to 1.7% in the final quarter of last year. This was precisely what the Bank of Canada (BoC) forecast for Q1 in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Yesterday, the…

As expected, the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 1.25% for the third consecutive month but said that first-quarter growth was stronger than expected and that developments since April suggest that higher interest rates will be warranted. The first quarter GDP numbers are out tomorrow morning, and it’s clear the Q1 growth will be…

April is usually the start of a spring housing market ramp-up, but this year the new mortgage stress test and rising mortgage rates have continued to be a negative factor. Those expecting an early-stage pick-up marking an end to the payback for sales pulled forward into the fourth quarter of last year have been sorely…

Statistics Canada announced this morning that employment was virtually unchanged in April (down 1,100) following a surge in March and the unemployment rate remained at 5.8%–its lowest level in four decades. Wages growth accelerated signalling tight labour markets. April’s stall was only the second time since mid-2016 that the job market did not grow. On…

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week for the second time under the chairmanship of Jerome Powell. In a unanimous decision, the Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. Unlike the Bank of Canada, which has a single objective of targeting inflation at roughly…

The Canadian dollar fell sharply immediately after the release of the Bank of Canada’s Official Statement providing a more bullish forecast for the economy while holding rates steady. The Bank hiked its estimate of noninflationary potential growth, implying there was more room to grow without triggering rate hikes. The central bank now suggests the economy…

Data released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show a small uptick in home sales nationally in March, their first monthly increase in three months. This comes on the heels of a more than 19% decline in the previous two months as the tighter mortgage stress-testing rules at federally regulated lenders have reportedly…

Statistics Canada announced this morning that employment increased by a stronger-than-expected 32,300 in March, driven by full-time job gains. The unemployment rate was unchanged at a four-decade low of 5.8% indicating that the economy is at or near full employment. In the first quarter of 2018, employment edged down (-40,000 or -0.2%) reflecting a decrease…

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week for the first time under the chairmanship of Jerome Powell. In a unanimous decision, the Committee hiked the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. Unlike the Bank of Canada, which has a single objective of targeting…