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Home Sales Rose As Prices Stabilized–Housing Market is Turning a Corner The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems rose 2.8% on a month-over-month basis in June 2025, building on the 3.5% gain recorded in May. Over the past two months, the recovery in sales activity has been led overwhelmingly by the Greater…

Today’s Report Shows Inflation Remains a Concern, Forestalling BoC Action Canadian consumer prices accelerated for the first time in four months in June, and underlying price pressures firmed, likely keeping the central bank from cutting interest rates later this month. The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 1.9% in June from 1.7% in May, aligning…

Canada’s Economy Shows Amazing Resilience in June The Canadian economy refuses to buckle under the weight of tariff uncertainty and further potential tariff hikes. The Labour Force Survey, released this morning for June, showed a surprising net new job gain of 83,100 positions, the most significant number of jobs this year. A whopping 84% of…

Canada Is Headed For A Moderate Economic Contraction in Q2 Real gross domestic product (GDP) edged down 0.1% in April, following a 0.2% increase in March. The preliminary estimate for May was also -0.1%. April and May were months of the most significant tariff uncertainty–both auto, steel, and aluminum tariffs were announced during this period….

Today’s Report Shows Inflation Remains a Concern The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% year-over-year in May, matching the 1.7% increase in April. A reduced rent price increase and a decline in travel tour prices put downward pressure on the CPI in May compared with one year earlier. Smaller declines for gas and cellular services put upward…

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelines Buyers Canadian existing home sales recorded over the MLS Systems climbed 3.6% between April and May, a normally strong month for housing, marking the first gain in activity since last November.  The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Calgary, and Ottawa led the monthly increase. “May 2025 not only saw home sales move…

Labour Market Weakness Continued in May, Raising the Prospects of a Rate Cut at The Next BoC Meeting Today’s Labour Force Survey for May showed a marked adverse impact of tariffs on the Canadian economy. Employment held steady for the second consecutive month at a modest net job change of 8,800–below expectations.  Growth in full-time…

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady for the Second Consecutive Meeting–But Two More Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year As expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, the second consecutive rate hold since the Bank cut overnight rates seven times in the past year. The governing council…

Q1 GDP Growth Was Bolstered by Tariff Reaction As Residential Construction and Resale Activity Weakened Further Statistics Canada released Q1 GDP data showing a stronger-than-expected 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate, a tick above the pace of the quarter before. Exports drove growth as companies in the United States rushed to stockpile Canadian products before U.S. President…

Today’s Inflation Report Poses a Conundrum for the Bank of Canada The headline inflation report for April showed a marked slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose a mere 1.7% year over year (y/y), down sharply from the 2.3% rise in March. The slowdown in April was driven by lower energy prices, which fell 12.7% following…