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Global Tariff Uncertainty Is Not Good For the Canadian Housing Market Canadian MLS® Systems posted a double-digit jump in new supply in January 2025 when compared to December 2024. At the same time, sales activity fell off at the end of the month, likely reflecting uncertainty over the potential for a trade war with the…

  Canadian Inflation Edged Upward to 1.9% Y/Y in January In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9% year over year (y/y), up from 1.8% in December. This rise was primarily due to an uptick in energy prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased by 1.7% in January, down from 1.8% in December. Higher…

Stronger-Than-Expected Jobs Report in January Today’s Labour Force Survey for January surprised on the high side as businesses expanded employment despite threats of a tariff war with the US.  According to Statistics Canada, employment increased by 76,000 last month, bringing the jobless rate down to 6.6%. Economists in a Bloomberg survey expected a smaller rise…

Noone Benefits From Tariffs Despite having negotiated the current trade agreement among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada during his first administration, Donald Trump broke the terms of that treaty on Saturday. He triggered a global stock market selloff after fulfilling his threat to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. These levies are set to…

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 BPs The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 25 basis points this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.0%. The market had anticipated a nearly 98% chance of this 25 basis point reduction, and consensus aligned with this expectation. The Federal Reserve is…

Positive News On The Inflation Front  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.8% year-over-year in December, a slight decrease from the 1.9% rise in November. The main contributors to this slowdown were food purchased from restaurants and alcoholic beverages bought from stores. Excluding food, the CPI rose by 2.1% in December. On December 14,…

The Impact of Tariffs on Canadian Housing Markets Today is President Trump’s inauguration day in the US, and contrary to earlier threats, officials have announced that he will not impose new tariffs on his first day in office. Instead, Trump will issue a comprehensive trade memo directing federal agencies to evaluate trade relationships with China,…

The Canadian Housing Market Ends 2024 On a Weak Note Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems softened in December, falling 5.8% compared to November. However, they were still 13% above their level in May, just before the Bank of Canada began cutting interest rates.  The fourth quarter of 2024 saw sales up 10%…

Stronger-Than-Expected Jobs Report in December Today’s Labour Force Survey for December was much stronger than expected, as many thought the Canada Post strike would have a larger impact. Employment rose by 90,900 net new jobs last month, and the employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed— increased by 0.2 percentage points…

Good News On The Inflation Front  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% year-over-year (y/y) in November, down from a 2.0% increase in October. Slower price growth was broad-based, with prices for travel tours and the mortgage interest cost index contributing the most to the deceleration. Excluding gasoline, the all-items CPI rose 2.0% in November, following a 2.2% gain in…