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Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales rose for the sixth consecutive month. Transactions are now running almost 17% above the six-year low reached in February 2019, but remain about 10% below highs reached in 2016 and 2017. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver all saw sales and prices…

The Bank of Canada’s reticence to signal coming rate cuts has been vindicated by the rebounding jobs report released today for August. Following a strong posting for real GDP growth in the second quarter, Canadian job growth surprised on the upside with a gain of 81,100 in August. The August job gains were one of…

The Bank of Canada held the target overnight rate at steady at 1.75% for the seventh consecutive decision date but will monitor closely the impact of the US-China trade war on economic activity around the world and in Canada. The second-quarter growth–posted at 3.7%–exceeded the Bank’s forecast in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), but…

The booming labour market in Canada seems to have vanished, at least for now, as employment declined and the unemployment rate rose again in July. Whether it is the summer doldrums, a trained worker shortage or the beginning of a slower second-half economy is yet to be seen. But the news is troubling in the…

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the overnight target rate by 25 basis points as expected today. Chairman Jerome Powell, however, said it was designed to “insure against downside risks” rather than to signal the start of multiple rate cuts. President Trump called for “large” rate cuts on Twitter and has for months pressured…

The interest rate used by the federally regulated banks in mortgage stress tests has declined for the first time since 2016, making it a bit easier to get a mortgage. This is particularly important for first-time homeowners who have been struggling to pass the B-20 stress test. The benchmark posted 5-year fixed rate has fallen…

Statistics released late last week by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales were little changed in June following gains in the prior three months. Housing activity remains well below levels recorded over much of 2015-2017–the boom years. As the chart below shows, national sales have moved up to close to…

The Bank of Canada held the target overnight rate at 1.75% for the sixth consecutive decision and showed little willingness to ease monetary policy, as stronger domestic growth offsets the risk of mounting global trade tensions. There has been ongoing speculation that the Bank of Canada would be pushed into cutting interest rates by the…

After a long stretch of stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs growth, it is not surprising that this notoriously volatile data series took a breather. There was little change in the number of employees in both the public and private sectors in June. The Canadian economy shed 2,200 jobs last month as self-employment fell 1.4% and other employment…

Statistics released late last week by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales increased in May. Together with monthly gains in the previous two months, activity in May reached its highest level since early last year when the new B-20 stress testing was introduced. While last month’s home sales stood 8.9%…